Are streaming services "minutes away from being obsolete"? When someone as close to the heart of the music industry as Jimmy Iovine says so, then it's worth taking notice. Joel Gouveia was initially taken aback by the claim, but on reflection argues that Iovine has a point.
In a piece for The Artist Economy, Gouveia underlines that the current system is precarious and doesn't work for anyone within the industry: not the record labels, who have lost control of the means of distribution and consumption to the tech companies; not the streaming services themselves, for which margins are squeezed and turning a significant profit is tricky if not impossible; and certainly not the vast majority of artists, who are compensated with pennies (if at all) while the model funnels the big bucks to the top-streamed megastars.
This much isn't in dispute - but if Spotify et al were to fold, what is the solution/exit strategy? Gouveia argues that "the answer is direct ownership", and claims that "[w]e are witnessing the death of the 'Mass Audience' and the birth of the 'Micro-Community'."
That we are on the cusp of - or indeed already experiencing - something of a shift/sea change does, I think, ring true. More and more artists are withdrawing from streaming services, operating via Bandcamp and their own websites, focusing on hard-copy merch and seeking to cultivate community. This resistance to the system is piecemeal rather than coordinated, though, and it raises other issues.
For starters, a DIY approach is feasible for fledgling artists, but the micro-community can't be too micro if self-sustainability is the target. Bands like Los Campesinos! are showing that mid-tier acts can create their own little world, but they would be the first to admit that they've only been able to do so having already built up a fanbase - and that it doesn't really support them financially.
Cultivating close connections and rapport can best be achieved through personal, face-to-face contact at gigs, which are also a prime opportunity for selling merch. But the cost of touring has risen significantly in recent years to the point of being practically uneconomical for many. As Los Campesinos!' Gareth David has explained, even sold-out gigs can be lossmakers.
For major acts, meanwhile, such personal contact is impossible. They are then reliant on social media to create community (or the illusion of it) - opening themselves up to its toxic and corrosive side-effects. Plus they still need some means of mass distribution. Gouveia might be right in pointing out a general trend towards micro-communities, but there will always be artists (and industry types) who have grander ambitions.
I'd suggest that Gouveia also fails to acknowledge quite how significant streaming and social media are. Once upon a time, industry decisions were made based on record sales and chart positions; now, streaming figures are the key metric, as Oasis manager Marcus Russell noted in a talk last year, and social media stature/online brand is almost as important. That goes not only for record labels and management companies but also for festival organisers, as Green Man's Fiona Stewart admitted this week. Abandon mainstream streaming services and social media and you're making yourself much less widely visible.
Curiously, the one group to which Gouveia's article gives little consideration is consumers. Streaming's persistence relies on the fact that we've got accustomed to being able to listen to anything wherever and whenever we want, and paying peanuts for the privilege. A significant hike in the cost of monthly streaming subscriptions would not be unreasonable; indeed, it would be totally justifiable if it meant that artists were properly and equitably compensated and the money didn't just go to making the platforms themselves profitable.
The problem, though, is hinted at in Gouveia's point about all of the streaming services being much of a muchness. In that context, no platform will want to be the first mover on price increases for fear of instantly haemorrhaging subscribers to rival services. Without coordinated action by the platforms or external intervention from governments or regulators, that leaves us at something of an impasse.
In the meantime, then, even as increasing numbers of artists make a deliberate decision to opt out, the broken system seems set to limp on.
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